Paul Merson's Premier League season preview: Who wins title and finishes in top five - and who are relegation contenders?

August 2026 · 9 minute read

In his latest column, Paul Merson predicts the 2026/27 Premier League season at both ends of the table.

The new season kicks off on Friday as champions Arsenal host promoted Coventry City, with six games live on Sky Sports over the course of the opening weekend.

Merson has picked his top six, assessed the contenders for relegation and selected one team to overachieve and upset the big boys this season...

1st: Arsenal

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Sky Sports' Rob Dorsett talks to Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta about the club having the 'ambition and desire' to win back-to-back Premier League titles and how they are targeting elite players to be the best club in the world

I just can't see anybody stopping Arsenal. They'll win it quite comfortably. I don't see a single weakness in them regarding the Premier League.

They do have a few weaknesses in the Champions League but for the Premier League, they remind me of when Manchester City first started dominating the league: two players in every position.

William Saliba and Gabriel are unbelievable but then Cristhian Mosquera comes in and you wouldn't even think Saliba was missing. Jurrien Timber is out but Ben White comes in and keeps Jeremy Doku quiet.

I watched the Community Shield win over Manchester City in Cardiff and I was going: 'Oh, I forgot about Viktor Gyokeres. I forgot about Eberechi Eze.' And they were coming on with five or 10 minutes to go.

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And Christos Tzolis is like Ronseal - does exactly what it says on the tin. He looks like a manager's dream. You'll tell him in the dressing room what you want him to do, what his job is, and he does it to the absolute. He got up and down that left wing all through the game, held his position, never let the full-back get beyond him.

I don't think him and Gabriel Martinelli take you to the Champions League but Arsenal must have something in the pipeline. They've got to.

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James Savundra and Michael Bridge discuss where Arsenal need to strengthen this summer

I'd be shocked if they didn't have a key signing before the start of the season or before the end of the window. And I mean a key signing.

The Vinicius Junior deal was a lot closer to what people think. It wasn't just talk - a lot had gone through. A lot had been done. That's the market they're looking at.

I just don't see anybody touching Arsenal at the moment. The only ones who can beat Arsenal are themselves.

Friday 21st August 6:30pm

Kick off 8:00pm

2nd: Liverpool

Liverpool just need to be consistent if they are to challenge Arsenal. Last season was so inconsistent from them.

I look at their squad and I don't see them having the same depth as Arsenal. Liverpool's players would have to stay fit for them to have any chance of the title - the key players would have to play 36 or 37 games in the season.

They still haven't replaced Mohamed Salah. A lot of goals have gone missing. He wasn't on it last season but he was still a threat, and Andoni Iraola still needs someone to come in and fill that gap.

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European football expert Julien Laurens tells Transfer Talk where he thinks Liverpool may still need to strengthen in the summer transfer window

Liverpool's midfield wasn't great last year but I expect Florian Wirtz to have a better season, 100 per cent. I thought it would take time for him to get settled in this league, but he's had a season now. If he doesn't get going this season, you start worrying.

But Alexander Isak was so up and down with injury last season, they couldn't really get him on the pitch. I don't know if he's going to need to take a bit more time, so I don't know about his levels this season.

Sunday 23rd August 4:00pm

Kick off 4:30pm

3rd: Chelsea

Chelsea have a big advantage playing once a week. That's huge. They've got to take advantage of that,.

Their aim is to be in the top five and you don't want to start running before you start walking. You just never know. The last time Chelsea won the Premier League in 2017, they were playing once a week without Europe.

You look at Chelsea's squad and it's alright. They've got players in certain positions that can come into the team and not majorly weaken it. They've got a chance.

If Xabi Alonso wants to get Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers playing and performing as the two No 10s, then you probably need to play a back three.

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Morgan Rogers speaks to Sky Sports for the first time after his big-money move to Chelsea, explaining why the Blues felt right and how he's going to play with mate Cole Palmer

He has to get those two players on the pitch for Chelsea, because they're the two stars, the two that make it happen.

My worry for them is there's a triangle - Palmer, Rogers and Joao Pedro all want to come and get the ball. It's going to get very congested in there. That's my only problem.

But Alonso is a top coach. If he finds a way of those three players gelling and playing together - making one of them run in beyond - then Chelsea will have a very good season. But I don't see them getting 85 to 86 points, which is what Arsenal will get.

Monday 24th August 6:30pm

Kick off 8:00pm

4th: Manchester City

After watching the Community Shield, I said the one thing Manchester City cannot do is sell Rodri. And they did it after the game. I just don't see them competing with Arsenal this season.

There were some positives for them in that game. David Raya made some very good saves - and not every goalkeeper is like Raya.

But over 38 games, I just don't see how Manchester City will be able to live with Arsenal.

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Rodri gave an emotional farewell to Manchester City fans after Barcelona move

5th: Tottenham

There's not too much between Spurs and Manchester Utd at the moment - but I might just go Spurs top five.

Spurs are my dark horses. Well, they're definitely going to finish above 17th! They've bought well and again, they're playing once a week.

Roberto De Zerbi is a good manager and a good coach. He'll get them playing the way he wants them to play. The other teams are bang, crash, wallop playing Wednesday-Saturday. You don't get the time when travelling to Europe.

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Tottenham Hotspur head coach Roberto De Zerbi told the Men in Blazers Network that he expects to make more signings this summer (Pictures: Men in Blazers Network)

Managers like Alonso and De Zerbi have so much opportunity to put better ideas into the players' heads by playing once a week.

The one thing I've noticed about Tottenham over the last few years is they never had a dominant midfielder. They were decent at the back, not bad up front - especially when Harry Kane and Dejan Kulusevski were there - but never had a dominant midfielder.

I look at the midfielders they've bought now and they're going to be a real handful for a lot of teams. They've shored up defensively.

It's funny how football works. Last season, Spurs were virtually relegated and they went to Aston Villa, who could have near-on sent them down. Spurs won the game, stayed up and are now going to take Villa's place in the top six.

Villa could have taken Spurs out of the equation and been 'that team'. Now I'm not sure Villa can finish above Spurs anymore.

Saturday 22nd August 5:00pm

Kick off 5:30pm

6th: Manchester United

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Harry Maguire talks life at Manchester United under Michael Carrick and whether things feel different going into the new season

I just worry about Manchester United with Europe. We saw it last season at times - their squad is wafer thin.

If Bruno Fernandes got injured, then you'd really worry. And yes, they have Youri Tielemans in there but I don't see a dominant midfield.

Manchester United will have their ups and downs - and I don't expect them to be challengers. It's too early for that.

I just don't understand the Andrey Santos signing. I might be wrong and Manchester United see something different. But a lot of Chelsea fans were asking what he does.

He doesn't break it up, doesn't create chances, doesn't score goals. That's my problem.

I like the Tielemans signing, he's a good footballer. But while you have Tielemans and Fernandes as good footballers, you need more than that to get the ball back.

United still have that same defence that can be leaky at times, while the attack is hot and cold.

Do any of the promoted teams stay up?

It isn't down to the three promoted teams. It's down to the teams like Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Newcastle who could drop in there.

I like Bournemouth but their squad is thin as well with Europe. You get their best XI out and it'll be good, but if they start getting three or four injuries...

What are we going to see from Newcastle as well? What's happening there is just unbelievable.

What I would say is if you want to stay up, you have to start well. You have to get points on the board. Promoted teams don't finish well, you don't normally see them winning four out of the last five.

When the reality of the Premier League kicks in, you start playing week-in, week-out and if you're still getting beat, then it takes its toll in the end.

Coventry vs Hull in the second week of the season is a cup final, especially for Coventry who have Arsenal and Manchester City away either side of that. If they get thrashed by Arsenal and City but beat Hull, that's a good start to the season.

Overachievers to watch: Brentford

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Highlights from the pre-season friendly match between Brentford and Eintracht Frankfurt

Brentford will be there and thereabouts in the Europe race again. I like Keith Andrews and thought they were really good in pre-season against Eintracht Frankfurt, where they won 7-0.

Obviously Jordan Henderson's gone, who was good for them last season. But Brentford and Brighton, they will beat teams and upset people this season.

If you're Arsenal and wanting to win the Premier League, and you take six points off those teams, then you're near-on winning the Premier League.